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With the main card scheduled for a 10 pm (ET) start on March 4, Saturday night looks to be dominated by the superb UFC 285 slate. Not only will Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso battle for the flyweight strap in the co-main event, but Jon ‘Bones’ Jones will make his return to the octagon for a shot at the vacant heavyweight crown.
In the final fight of the night, fan-favorite Bones will come up against career heavyweight Ciryl Gane – one of the deadliest strikers in the division, if not the most venomous of the lot. Jones has taken a couple of years to step up from light heavyweight and get ready, with the odds certainly sliding in his favor right now.
Bookies favor Bones over Bon Gamin
For anyone who knows his history in the UFC, it won’t come as a surprise that the 6’4’’ Jon Jones stepping up the heavyweight hasn’t changed the perception that he can beat anyone. The betting odds on Jones vs Gane have the New York native at -175 to win the bout, +350 to win by KO or TKO, +700 to win by submission, and +180 to win by points.
Gane, the resident heavyweight, is out at +125 to become the UFC’s heavyweight champion by the end of the night. With striking and elusiveness being his strengths, Gane to win by KO or TKO gets odds of +500 while the Frenchman to win on points comes in at +333.
It’s an interesting layout in the odds, especially as Jones is losing one of his greatest assets. At light heavyweight, Jones’ absurd reach and often height advantages offered an edge and certainly helped him hit 26-1. Of course, he tailored his game to suit, exploring angles and attacks that only an athlete of his dimensions could, but Gane squares up well.
For his last fight, a knockout triumph over Tai Tuivasa, Gane weighed in at 247 lbs, standing 6’5’’, and yet, he fights much more like a middleweight. He’s far quicker on his feet than most top heavyweights of this era, and fully utilizes his reach. Jones is reportedly knocking around 255 lbs, having added 50 lbs since his last outing (2020).
Jones’ ground game could be decisive
In the heavyweight division, one strike can turn the tide of a fight and swing it even in favor of the greatest underdog, but in the UFC, the best grapplers and wrestlers rarely allow for that punch, kick, knee, or elbow to get in first. With his extra pounds, Jones will almost certainly be hunting for the takedown often and early.
His opponent certainly isn’t poor against takedowns, but even the less accomplished wrestler Francis Ngannou successfully snuffed out the Frenchman’s striking by taking it to the cage and ground. The key line from the UFC stats page that most will look to is Jones’ 44 percent takedown accuracy to Gane’s 55 percent takedown defense.
Bones is supremely versatile, and while Bon Gamin can certainly mix up his attacks and seemingly land them out of nowhere before getting out of range, Jones’ defense might yet get the better of the speedy Frenchman. The owner of the most title fight wins record (14) is a master of blocking and countering, so Gane will have to be on his toes more so than ever before.
One perfectly-placed punch or kick can swing a collision like this in favor of the more proficient striker, but more often than not, when the striker hits the ground, it’s a fighter like Jones who can see out the bout for the victory.
